62 of 165 tracked profitable whales are holding or adding; 48 distributing, 55 exited.
Q: What exactly is each tracked profitable wallet doing with its position?
≥75% of bag held, principal recovered or ≥3x, no selling in 30D
Recovered ≥100% of principal and still holds ≥40% of the bag
Net +10% or more of holdings bought in 7D
First buy within 7D
No significant buying or selling in 30D
Sold ≥5% of the bag in 30D, ≥40% remains
<40% of bag remains, or ≥20% sold in 7D
<5% of the acquired tokens remain
Excluded from every whale metric: 1 market maker wallet. Their flow is shown in activity, labelled, but never counted as whale behavior.
Q: Have the whales already taken their initial capital out - and how much of the bag did they keep?
Principal recovered = realized value ÷ initial cost. Bag remaining = tokens still held ÷ tokens originally acquired (LP, staking and own-cluster transfers count as held).
Q: Is qualified money entering or leaving - counting only observed swaps and OTC trades?
Transfers, LP moves, bridging and CEX deposits are not counted as flow: they are not observed trades. CEX deposits appear in activity as estimated disposals.
Q: What did tracked wallets just do - and what kind of transaction was it really?
| Wallet | Action | Amount | Classification | PnL | Bag remaining | Principal rec. | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 23.8K WALLET $555 | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 2m ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 47.4K WALLET $1K | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 16m ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 47.2K WALLET $1K | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 26m ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 37.8K WALLET $881 | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 33m ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 34.6K WALLET $806 | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 1h ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 27.6K WALLET $643 | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 2h ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 50.4K WALLET $1K | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 2h ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 36.2K WALLET $843 | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 2h ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 22.6K WALLET $527 | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 2h ago | |
0xab2f…53baWhale | Sell | 22.5K WALLET $523 | SWAP | 1.2x | 52% | 50% | 3h ago | |
0x45c0…e146Whale | Sell | 127K WALLET $3K | SWAP | 1.1x | 0% | 106% | 3h ago | |
0x45c0…e146Whale | Sell | 111K WALLET $3K | SWAP | 1.1x | 0% | 106% | 3h ago | |
0xd679…443cWhale | Sent | 518K WALLET $12K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.9x | 53% | 48% | 4h ago | |
0xc552…cae8Whale | Sell | 25.0K WALLET $582 | SWAP | 1.1x | 93% | 7% | 5h ago | |
0x5f11…ba5bWhale | Sell | 170K WALLET $4K | SWAP | 0.8x | 0% | 81% | 5h ago | |
0xc552…cae8Whale | Sent | 100K WALLET $2K | Rotation | 1.1x | 93% | 7% | 6h ago | |
0x3088…7067Whale | Sell | 33.0K WALLET $769 | SWAP | 1.5x | 48% | 79% | 6h ago | |
0x3088…7067Whale | Sell | 23.5K WALLET $547 | SWAP | 1.5x | 48% | 79% | 6h ago |
Q: When whales sold, where did the money go - and who rotated into WALLET?
Q: How much supply can actually hit the market - and how much of that sits with whales?
| Holder type | Tokens | % supply | Wallets | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnedlocked / inactive | 54.8M | 5.5% | 85% | |
| Liquidity poolslocked / inactive | 4.7M | 0.5% | 85% | |
| Active whales | 509M | 50.9% | 80% | |
| Retail | 19.2M | 1.9% | 60% | |
| Unclassified | 413M | 41.3% | 30% |
Q: How much latent sell pressure exists - given profit, behavior and concentration, not profit alone?
3.2% of identified tradable float is held by tracked wallets currently at >10x unrealized profit.
Base pressure rises with unrealized multiple; proven holders (principal out, bag kept, no 30D selling) are discounted ×0.6; recent distributors (×1.35), young wallets and low-quality wallets are marked up; current buyers are discounted.
Q: Which individual wallets show the strongest conviction - by behavior, not just size?