55 of 193 tracked profitable whales are holding or adding; 24 distributing, 114 exited.
Q: What exactly is each tracked profitable wallet doing with its position?
≥75% of bag held, principal recovered or ≥3x, no selling in 30D
Recovered ≥100% of principal and still holds ≥40% of the bag
Net +10% or more of holdings bought in 7D
First buy within 7D
No significant buying or selling in 30D
Sold ≥5% of the bag in 30D, ≥40% remains
<40% of bag remains, or ≥20% sold in 7D
<5% of the acquired tokens remain
Excluded from every whale metric: 1 market maker wallet. Their flow is shown in activity, labelled, but never counted as whale behavior.
Q: Have the whales already taken their initial capital out - and how much of the bag did they keep?
Principal recovered = realized value ÷ initial cost. Bag remaining = tokens still held ÷ tokens originally acquired (LP, staking and own-cluster transfers count as held).
Q: Is qualified money entering or leaving - counting only observed swaps and OTC trades?
Transfers, LP moves, bridging and CEX deposits are not counted as flow: they are not observed trades. CEX deposits appear in activity as estimated disposals.
Q: What did tracked wallets just do - and what kind of transaction was it really?
| Wallet | Action | Amount | Classification | PnL | Bag remaining | Principal rec. | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 368K INDEX $7K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 185K INDEX $4K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 186K INDEX $4K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 372K INDEX $7K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 374K INDEX $7K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 375K INDEX $7K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 378K INDEX $7K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Received | 552K INDEX $10K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 2h ago | |
0xcc89…5ee0Whale | Sell | 195K INDEX $3K | SWAP | 0.6x | 0% | 61% | 2h ago | |
0x4cfd…d15bWhale | Sell | 123K INDEX $2K | SWAP | 1.6x | 11% | 145% | 2h ago | |
0x4cfd…d15bWhale | Sell | 218K INDEX $4K | SWAP | 1.6x | 11% | 145% | 3h ago | |
0x4cfd…d15bWhale | Sell | 89.7K INDEX $2K | SWAP | 1.6x | 11% | 145% | 3h ago | |
0x824a…b465Whale | Sent | 500K INDEX $9K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.1x | 17% | 102% | 3h ago | |
0x4cfd…d15bWhale | Sell | 45.6K INDEX $817 | SWAP | 1.6x | 11% | 145% | 3h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Sell | 111K INDEX $2K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 4h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Sell | 55.7K INDEX $1K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 4h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Sell | 55.1K INDEX $1K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 4h ago | |
0xc6a8…9939Whale | Sell | 54.6K INDEX $1K | Rotation | 0.9x | 39% | 62% | 4h ago |
Q: When whales sold, where did the money go - and who rotated into INDEX?
Q: How much supply can actually hit the market - and how much of that sits with whales?
| Holder type | Tokens | % supply | Wallets | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnedlocked / inactive | 19.5M | 1.9% | 85% | |
| Liquidity poolslocked / inactive | 30.2M | 3.0% | 85% | |
| Active whales | 508M | 50.8% | 80% | |
| Retail | 27.8M | 2.8% | 60% | |
| Unclassified | 415M | 41.5% | 30% |
Q: How much latent sell pressure exists - given profit, behavior and concentration, not profit alone?
4.6% of identified tradable float is held by tracked wallets currently at >10x unrealized profit.
Base pressure rises with unrealized multiple; proven holders (principal out, bag kept, no 30D selling) are discounted ×0.6; recent distributors (×1.35), young wallets and low-quality wallets are marked up; current buyers are discounted.
Q: Which individual wallets show the strongest conviction - by behavior, not just size?